PHIVOLCS: Chances of 'the big one' earthquake in NCR go up as 2058 nears
The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said that the likelihood of a major earthquake hitting Metro Manila rises as 2058 approaches.
On ANC’s Headstart on Monday, PHIVOLCS director Teresito Bacolcol gave a rough estimate of when a 7.2-magnitude earthquake—dubbed as “the big one”—is likely to strike Metro Manila.
While admitting the impossibility of predicting the exact time and place of earthquakes, Bacolcol said the most scientists can do is calculate the recurrence interval of major earthquakes in the Philippines
According to Bacolcol, historically, major earthquakes occur in the Philippines roughly every 400 to 600 years. The last time a seismic event of this intensity, with a 7.0 magnitude, took place near Manila and Santa Cruz on August 20, 1658.
“As we get closer to 2058, the probability of this 7.2 earthquake recurring is tumataas. But it doesn’t mean that by 2058, mangyayari ‘yan. It could be earlier; it could be later. Or it could [happen] in the upper boundary, which is 600 years,” said Bacolcol.
PHIVOLCS is speculating the major tremor to reach a magnitude of 7.2.
Earthquakes are not man-made
Meanwhile, the Department of Science and Technology maintained on Monday that man-made activities are too weak to bring about an earthquake.
“Wala pong anumang gawa ng tao na makakatumbas sa enerhiya na pinapakawalan ng lindol. Ang mga lindol ay masyadong malalim, mga kilometro po ang pinanggagalingan,” said Science and Technology Secretary Renato Solidum.
“For example, ‘yung magnitude 7.4 ay nasa 20 kilometers below the surface. So imposible pong maka-create pa tayo ng isang instrument na maka-impluwensiya doon sa napakalalim na parte,” he added.
According to Solidum, the amount of energy that causes major earthquakes builds up over hundreds or thousands of years.
“Ang isang magnitude 6 na lindol ay katumbas ng isang Hiroshima na atomic bomb ang energy,” he added.
Frequent tremors are normal in the Philippines
With six active trenches and 180 active fault segments in the Philippines, Bacolcol says there is always the possibility of earthquakes taking place one after the other, or even simultaneously. He emphasized, however, that the recent earthquakes that shook areas in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao within days of each other were not connected.
The PHIVOLCS director added that every day, the institute records about 30 earthquakes. But since most of these are minor tremors, people don’t feel them.
“Everything happening now is normal. It’s just that bigla lang nagkaroon ng malalakas na lindol na naramdaman ng tao,” said Bacolcol.
Since Sept. 30, when Bogo City, Cebu experienced a 6.9-magnitude quake, different areas across the country has been hit by earthquakes in varying intensity, including San Fernando, La Union, Baguio, Zambales, and Davao Oriental.
